Crypto Treasuries Face Index Axe
MSCI’s latest rule changes are poised to eject companies like Strategy (MSTR) and Japan’s Metaplanet (3350) from its global equity indexes, creating uncertainty for firms whose main asset is cryptocur
The final list of affected companies will be published on November 11, with the changes taking effect after the market closes on November 30. This timeline gives investors less than a month to adjust their positions before the index reshuffle becomes reality. According to coindesk.com, Strategy currently holds an industry-leading 848,250 bitcoin—valued at about $69.67 billion as of this week—making it the largest publicly listed bitcoin holder worldwide.
MSTR shares ended Thursday at $151.29, down 72% from their November 2024 peak of $543.
MSCI Redefines ‘Real Business’ Criteria
The new MSCI rules extend existing exclusions—which already barred investment funds—to cover any company that “mostly” holds investments rather than running substantial operating businesses. To determine eligibility, MSCI will now scrutinize whether a company has significant operating assets and apply five financial ratio tests. Companies failing at least four of these tests will be deemed ineligible for index inclusion. For current constituents, removal typically requires failing these screens across two annual reporting periods, though interim filings may also be considered.
Previously, MSCI only excluded companies if digital assets made up more than half their total assets; the revised framework broadens this to target business models that resemble holding vehicles—even if their asset mix is more varied.
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Billions in Outflows Loom for MSTR
JPMorgan analysts estimate that Strategy’s potential exclusion could spark approximately $2.8 billion in passive outflows from MSTR stock as index-tracking funds are forced to divest. This figure is particularly striking when compared to Strategy’s recent share performance: MSTR closed at $151.29 on Thursday, representing a drop of roughly 72% from its all-time high of $543 reached in November 2024. The scale of these projected outflows highlights the influence major indexes wield over liquidity and valuation for companies with unconventional balance sheets.
Passive funds may face little choice but to sell if MSCI follows through with its removal plans.
Metaplanet has also experienced dramatic volatility this year. Its shares peaked at 1,930 yen in June 2025 but ended Friday at just 277 yen ($1.75), underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift for firms whose fortunes are tied to digital assets rather than core operations.
Bitcoin-Heavy Firms on Chopping Block
Strategy’s business model continues to blur the lines between operating company and investment vehicle. In the first week of November alone, the firm added another 250 bitcoin worth $21.5 million to its treasury and repurchased $176 million worth of its STRC preferred shares. At the same time, Strategy declared daily dividends for STRC holders throughout November, maintaining an annualized rate of 12%—a move subject to shareholder approval and regulatory filings.
Yet while such aggressive capital maneuvers have attracted investor attention, they may have also contributed to Strategy’s vulnerability under MSCI’s new criteria. The company’s June decision to allow bitcoin sales for dividend funding further blurred distinctions between operational income and investment activity—a nuance that now carries tangible risk under the updated rules.
Other companies are also in MSCI’s crosshairs. Alongside Metaplanet and uranium-focused Yellow Cake, Ethereum treasury firm SharpLink was placed on a watchlist for potential future exclusion based on similar concerns about operational substance versus investment holdings.
Index Shakeup Targets Non-Operators
The tension between headline numbers and underlying fundamentals is stark: while Strategy boasts nearly $70 billion in bitcoin reserves, its ability to remain part of mainstream equity benchmarks now depends on meeting stricter definitions of what constitutes a “real” business. Investors who once saw crypto treasuries as proxies for digital asset exposure must now confront the possibility that such firms could soon be absent from widely tracked indexes—potentially reducing both their visibility and liquidity.
It remains uncertain how many additional companies will ultimately be swept up by MSCI’s expanded criteria after November 11. However, with a growing watchlist—including names like Sharplink and DeFi Development Corp.—the risk extends beyond just bitcoin-heavy giants to other firms experimenting with alternative treasury strategies or hybrid business models.
The Final Word
- •MSCI's new rules could remove Strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet from global equity indexes, with changes effective after November 30, 2026.
- •Companies failing at least 4 out of 5 MSCI financial ratio tests over two annual periods may be excluded from indexes.
- •JPMorgan estimates Strategy’s (MSTR) exclusion could trigger about $2.8 billion in passive outflows from its stock.
What investors will be watching
Investors will focus on MSCI’s release of the final list of companies to be removed from its global equity indexes on November 11; if Strategy (MSTR) is confirmed for exclusion, JPMorgan analysts estimate this could immediately trigger about $2.8 billion in outflows from MSTR stock.
