Bitcoin Surges as Hormuz Reopens
Bitcoin’s price climbed above $64,000 over the weekend, with intraday highs surpassing $64,200 as traders responded to mounting optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement.
The reopening of the Strait is particularly significant: roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass through this waterway, which has been blocked by naval activity during recent tensions. A draft memorandum reportedly includes a 60-day negotiating window for broader nuclear and sanctions agreements, while also proposing a temporary halt on new US sanctions against Iran. For crypto markets, this easing of geopolitical risk appears to have acted as a catalyst for renewed buying.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X that a peace deal could be finalized within 24 hours, with electronic signing and technical-level talks to follow.
ETF Inflows Signal Renewed Optimism
Friday saw net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs reach $85.9 million, the highest daily figure since May 14. This reversal comes after five straight weeks of outflows totaling about $315.84 million, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment as headlines around the peace deal gained momentum. According to coindesk.com, these flows suggest that some investors are rotating back into crypto exposure after previously liquidating positions—partly to participate in high-profile IPOs such as SpaceX.
On paper, ETF inflows often correlate with bullish price action, but the durability of this trend remains uncertain given the volatility of both geopolitical events and institutional demand. The question now is whether these inflows will persist if progress on the peace deal stalls or if profit-taking resumes.
See Also
Trump’s Announcement Fuels Crypto Rally
US President Trump’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz will be “open to all” immediately after the deal is signed triggered immediate market reactions.
Local highs for Bitcoin reached $64,750 on Bitstamp following Trump’s post on Truth Social and Sharif’s comments on X. While both leaders projected confidence in an imminent agreement—with Sharif specifying a likely finalization within 24 hours—the Iranian Foreign Ministry voiced caution. Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that Tehran would not sign any memorandum on Sunday but left open the possibility of an agreement “.” This divergence introduces an element of uncertainty into market expectations.
Strait Access Eases Market Anxiety
The draft memorandum between Washington and Tehran proposes not only reopening the Strait for commercial shipping but also relaxing US naval surveillance near Iranian ports for at least 60 days. Frozen Iranian assets worth approximately $25 billion could eventually be transferred through various financial channels if negotiations progress. For energy markets—and by extension, risk assets like Bitcoin—the prospect of restored oil flows has helped ease concerns about further escalation or supply shocks.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $64,557—up about 1.28% in 24 hours—while other major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Binance Coin (BNB) also posted modest gains. The broader crypto market appears to be responding positively to reduced geopolitical tension and increased liquidity prospects stemming from possible sanctions relief.
200-Week SMA Holds, Bulls Watch $65K
Technical traders have noted that Bitcoin continues to find support at its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a level historically viewed as a bear-market safety net. With BTC circling $64,000 into Sunday’s weekly close and testing local highs near $65K, attention is now focused on whether bulls can push through resistance in the $65K–$67K range—a zone identified as critical by multiple analysts. If these gains hold through the close, it would mark Bitcoin’s first positive week after a month-long slump.
Still, some caution is warranted: previous reports have questioned how reliable the 200-week SMA remains under current market conditions. As peace negotiations continue and ETF flows fluctuate, traders will be watching closely for confirmation—or reversal—of this week’s momentum.
What comes next
If the US-Iran peace deal is signed as President Trump announced for Sunday and the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, Bitcoin will enter the weekly close above $64,000 with the potential to break its four-week losing streak; however, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has stated the signing may not occur on Sunday, so the timing of these developments remains unclear.
