Bond yields tumble, Bitcoin rockets
Bitcoin’s price leapt above $87,000 on Friday, reaching as high as $87,229 on Bitstamp after the latest US jobs report came in far below expectations. The September nonfarm payrolls data showed just 29,000 new jobs added—well under the 84,000 forecasted by economists. This sudden miss triggered a sharp drop in US bond yields: the 30-year Treasury yield fell to 5.573%, while the 10-year slid to 5.2%, both retreating from 24-year highs set earlier in the week. The move in yields coincided with a nearly 3% daily gain for Bitcoin and a notable rally across risk assets.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also opened strong, up 1% and 1.8% respectively, reflecting Wall Street’s relief that weaker hiring could prompt a less aggressive Federal Reserve stance on interest rates.
Weak hiring triggers crypto rally
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that not only did September’s job growth disappoint, but previous months were revised lower as well: August’s nonfarm payrolls figure was cut by nearly 30,000 to 133,000. Unemployment ticked higher to 4.2%, another sign of cooling in the labor market. Despite these softer numbers, risk appetite surged—Bitcoin was trading at $86,757 on Friday afternoon, up over 3% in 24 hours and more than 2% for the week according to CoinGecko data.
The total crypto market cap climbed above $3 trillion after a 2.5% gain in just 24 hours.
This bump in Bitcoin came alongside a broader crypto market lift: total digital asset capitalization topped $3 trillion after rising 2.5% in one day. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also saw significant inflows during the third quarter, with $6.34 billion added and net assets now exceeding $109 billion.
Investors appear to be shrugging off the labor market’s shakiness for now.
Traders slash Fed hike bets
The jobs miss had an immediate impact on monetary policy expectations. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed that odds of a quarter-point rate hike at the October meeting collapsed from around 70% earlier this week to just 14–18%. Several prediction markets—including Kalshi and Polymarket—now put the probability of a rate hold at roughly four out of five. As reported by Cointelegraph.com, this marks a dramatic shift from just days ago when traders braced for further tightening.
Yet there is a nuance: while odds for another rate hike have dropped sharply, core inflation remains sticky—August’s core PCE inflation reading landed at 3.0%, still above the Fed’s long-term target but slightly lower than expected. This complicates the narrative: markets cheer weak jobs data as it suggests looser policy ahead, but persistent inflation keeps uncertainty alive about how dovish the central bank can afford to be.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown resilience even as macro signals send mixed messages. After surging past $87,000 intraday Friday, BTC pulled back below $86,000 by midday New York time—demonstrating ongoing volatility tied closely to economic releases and shifting interest rate bets.
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Unemployment ticks up, bulls unfazed
Despite unemployment rising to its highest level since early spring and job creation slowing dramatically compared to forecasts, bullish sentiment has held firm across both equities and crypto markets. The disconnect is striking: Wall Street indexes climbed alongside digital assets even as labor market cracks widened.
Looking at our proprietary data as of September 29, 2026, Bitcoin sits at $82,932—down marginally by just -0.01% over the last day and -0.03% over seven days but still up slightly (+0.06%) over thirty days. While Friday’s surge was notable in percentage terms given recent volatility, BTC remains about 31% below its all-time high of $126,080 set on October 6th last year—a reminder that even strong rallies can leave plenty of lost ground unrecovered.
The headline numbers show exuberance in spot ETF flows and broader crypto indices; however, persistent labor softness and lingering inflation mean that both bulls and bears have ammunition heading into October’s Federal Reserve meeting.
What to watch closely
The Federal Reserve’s October 28 meeting is key: if the Fed holds rates as CME FedWatch and prediction markets now overwhelmingly expect (with odds above 74%), immediate market reaction could hinge on confirmation or surprise, especially given the recent drop in rate hike probabilities following weaker-than-expected September nonfarm payrolls data.