Fed’s Hawkish Pivot Jolts Crypto Markets
Bitcoin has faced renewed turbulence as shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations ripple through global markets. The probability of a U.S.
While the Fed kept rates steady on Wednesday as widely expected, its more hawkish tone rattled risk assets and shifted market sentiment. Prediction markets now show the odds of an interest rate increase have surged from 8% to over 24%. For bitcoin traders, these developments have added a new layer of uncertainty to an already volatile environment.
Oil Price Shock Rattles Risk Assets
Energy markets have been anything but stable in recent weeks. Brent crude oil soared above $110 per barrel following conflict escalation in Iran and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments. In just three weeks, oil prices surged by 50%, intensifying inflation fears worldwide.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield climbed to 4.38% on Friday, up from under 4% at the start of March.
The U.S. response has included consideration of releasing sanctioned Iranian oil to help ease supply pressures, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell nearly 2% to $93.80 after coordinated efforts by major economies like Britain, France, and Japan aimed at stabilizing energy flows. Despite these interventions, the S&P 500 index closed below its key 200-day moving average for the first time since May last year, signaling broader market unease.
Traditional safe havens such as gold and silver also declined during this period—an unusual move when geopolitical risks are high.
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Bitcoin’s price action has mirrored these crosscurrents. After peaking above $75,000 earlier in the week, BTC stabilized above $70,000 but experienced sharp swings as macro headwinds intensified. On Friday alone, bitcoin jumped more than 1% to reach $70,800 after rebounding from overnight lows under $68,900—a move that came as oil prices retreated from their highs.
Other major cryptocurrencies lagged behind: ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), and solana (SOL) posted gains of less than 1% on the same day. The CoinDesk 20 Index was virtually unchanged on Friday, reflecting caution among market participants even as headline volatility appeared to subside.
Macro Uncertainty Clouds Bitcoin’s Path
Bond markets have signaled growing anxiety about economic conditions beyond crypto. In the U.K., yields on 10-year gilts surged above 5%, marking a 15% jump over the past month and reaching levels not seen since 2008. Meanwhile, U.S. equity benchmarks like the S&P 500 are down more than 5% since late February and are heading for a fourth straight weekly loss.
Despite bitcoin’s resilience above $69,000—trading at $69,764.81 with a modest gain of 0.8% since midnight UTC—the broader risk-off mood persists. André Dragosch of Bitwise points out that bitcoin is now influenced by both rising inflation expectations and tighter financial conditions, creating a challenging backdrop for sustained rallies.
On paper, bitcoin has often benefited from macro instability; in practice this week, it struggled alongside stocks and commodities alike.
Why It Matters: Practical Impact for Investors
For investors navigating this landscape, volatility is not just theoretical—it impacts portfolio decisions daily. Coinbase’s recent launch of stock perpetual futures for non-U.S. customers offers up to 10-times leverage on single-stock contracts and up to 20-times on ETF products—tools that can amplify both gains and losses when markets swing rapidly.
It’s unclear whether coordinated government actions—such as potential releases from strategic oil reserves or easing sanctions on Iranian crude—will be enough to stabilize energy prices or calm inflation fears in the near term. What is clear is that bitcoin’s role as either hedge or high-beta risk asset remains under scrutiny amid shifting macro winds.
What to watch
If the Federal Reserve raises rates at its April meeting—an event now given a 12% probability by CME FedWatch after being 0% just a week ago—bitcoin could see immediate volatility as traders react to tighter financial conditions and shifting inflation expectations.