Fed Jitters Weigh on Crypto Sentiment
Bitcoin’s price slipped under the $80,000 mark on Tuesday, dipping to approximately $79,700 in early trading as investors braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. The CME’s FedWatch tool currently assigns a 90% probability to rates staying unchanged on Wednesday, but with roughly an 80% chance of another hike in December, uncertainty lingers. This cautious outlook has contributed to muted sentiment across digital assets, with Ether also declining 0.5% over the same period.
The upcoming Fed decision has overshadowed broader market movements, even as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $110 million in inflows on Monday after two consecutive days of outflows. While this signals some renewed institutional interest, it contrasts with the previous week’s turbulence—spot bitcoin ETF outflows totaled $772 million over just two days, according to coindesk.com.
The DeFi index (DFX) dropped 1.8% on Tuesday, reversing its gain from Monday.
Bitcoin Shrugs Off Asian Stock Rally
Despite strong gains in Asian equities—South Korea’s Kospi surged by 3.1% on Tuesday—bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies remained largely unresponsive. This disconnect was evident as U.S. stock index futures edged lower ahead of major tech earnings reports, adding another layer of caution for crypto traders.
Bitcoin steadied near $80,400 after touching lows around $79,300 during the Asian morning session.
This divergence between traditional and digital markets highlights a key tension: while risk appetite returned to equities following news like Anthropic’s IPO filing, crypto markets held back amid macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting capital flows.
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ETF Inflows Resume Despite Price Dip
ETF flows have become a focal point for market watchers seeking clues about institutional sentiment. After two days of heavy outflows totaling $772 million last week, spot bitcoin ETFs reversed course with $110 million in net inflows on Monday. This shift suggests that some investors are using recent price weakness as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to exit entirely.
Yet the headline number tells only part of the story: bitcoin’s current price sits at $80,075—virtually unchanged over 24 hours and down just 0.02% for the week. However, this stability masks a much steeper drop from last year’s all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025. The market cap ranking remains unchallenged at number one, but recent volatility underscores how quickly sentiment can shift even at these elevated levels.
SoFi Crypto Users Surge Post-Relaunch
While bitcoin wavers near key support levels, SoFi Technologies reported a surge in crypto engagement following its platform relaunch in late 2025. The company added more than 500,000 cryptocurrency accounts within less than a year, reaching 503,070 active accounts as of September 30. Crypto transaction revenue hit $161.6 million for the third quarter alone—though nearly all was offset by associated costs, resulting in just $1.63 million net revenue from crypto transactions.
For the first nine months of 2026, SoFi posted $3.67 million in net crypto transaction revenue and saw its overall quarterly revenue jump by 44% year-over-year to $1.39 billion. Investors responded positively: SoFi shares rose 11% in premarket trading after the earnings announcement.
Market Braces for Fed Rate Clues
With bitcoin hovering just above the psychologically significant $80,000 threshold and volatility rising across asset classes, all eyes are now on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate decision for direction. Oil prices have retreated—U.S. crude fell about 2% to near $101 per barrel—but that relief has yet to translate into renewed risk-taking in crypto markets.
Some prominent traders are already taking defensive action: Arthur Hayes disclosed that his Maelstrom fund exited its entire directional book—including 6,400 ether—citing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks as reasons for stepping back from volatile positions.
In short: while ETF inflows have returned and platforms like SoFi are seeing robust user growth, persistent questions about global liquidity and interest rates continue to keep bitcoin rangebound—and investors wary—for now.
What comes next
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision on Wednesday, and if the Fed unexpectedly raises rates—despite CME’s FedWatch tool showing a 90% chance of no change—immediate volatility in bitcoin and broader markets could follow; otherwise, a hold would likely maintain current trading ranges in the short term.
