Jump Trading bets on prediction markets
Jump Trading, a major player in quantitative trading, is set to acquire minority stakes in two of the world’s largest prediction market platforms—Polymarket and Kalshi. The move comes as both companies have recently achieved multibillion-dollar valuations, with Kalshi reaching $11 billion and Polymarket close behind at $9 billion. Rather than a traditional cash investment, Jump will earn its equity by providing liquidity—essentially acting as a market maker to ensure smoother trading and tighter spreads for users.
This strategy signals a growing institutional interest in the prediction market sector, which allows users to trade contracts based on the outcome of real-world events, from elections to sports matches. Notably, Jump Trading has expanded its team by 20 new hires focused specifically on prediction-market trading in recent months. This expansion underlines the firm's commitment to this emerging asset class.
Liquidity for equity: the new trend
The core of Jump’s arrangement with both Polymarket and Kalshi is simple: provide liquidity, receive equity. For Kalshi, the deal is for a fixed amount of equity regardless of future trading volume. In contrast, Jump’s stake in Polymarket will increase over time depending on how much liquidity it supplies to the platform’s U.S. operations. This tiered approach aligns incentives between Jump and Polymarket, encouraging deeper engagement as trading volumes grow.
According to coindesk.com, these deals are not just about ownership—they position Jump as a key infrastructure provider for two platforms that together have defined much of the current prediction market landscape.
Kalshi deal locks in fixed stake
Kalshi operates as a centralized and federally regulated exchange in the United States. Its latest funding round in December secured $1 billion and pushed its valuation to $11 billion. Jump Trading’s agreement with Kalshi grants it a fixed equity stake in exchange for serving as a market maker—a role that involves providing buy and sell offers to keep markets active and liquid.
On paper, this gives Jump a predictable ownership share; but unlike Polymarket, there’s no upside tied directly to future trading activity.
Polymarket stake tied to trading volume
Polymarket stands apart as a decentralized platform built on the Polygon blockchain, enabling onchain settlement of contracts—a technical distinction that appeals to crypto-native traders. Its $9 billion valuation was buoyed by a $2 billion raise from Intercontinental Exchange, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. For Jump Trading, equity in Polymarket will be determined by how much liquidity it provides over time; the more capital it commits to making markets, the larger its stake could become.
This approach reflects confidence in growing user demand and trading volumes on decentralized exchanges. Survey data shows that 31% of Americans believe prediction markets are likely to become a “bigger, more important part of culture,” suggesting potential mainstream adoption is on the horizon.
Still, it’s unclear how regulatory scrutiny—especially given past lawsuits involving crypto firms—might impact these partnerships moving forward.
Wall Street enters decentralized prediction platforms
Jump Trading’s entry into this space is part of a broader institutional movement toward alternative financial products built on blockchain technology. Other Wall Street names have made similar moves: Susquehanna International Group partnered with Robinhood for derivatives exchange LedgerX, while Robinhood itself collaborates with Kalshi for its own prediction market product.
Sports-related contracts have emerged as a primary growth driver within these platforms; research from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming indicates that sports betting could account for nearly half of all projected expansion in the sector.
As institutional players like Jump deepen their involvement—and as both centralized (Kalshi) and decentralized (Polymarket) models attract billions—the lines between traditional finance and crypto-native innovation continue to blur. Whether this convergence can withstand regulatory challenges remains an open question.
The Wrap-Up
- •Jump Trading will receive a fixed equity stake in Kalshi and a scalable stake in Polymarket for providing liquidity.
- •Kalshi and Polymarket recently reached valuations of $11 billion and $9 billion, respectively.
- •Jump Trading has hired 20 staffers in recent months to focus on prediction-market trading.
Key points still in play
Jump Trading’s stake in Polymarket will increase if it provides greater trading capacity to the platform’s U.S. operation, so if Jump ramps up its market-making activity, its equity share will immediately rise beyond the initial small package; the exact scale and timing of this increase remain unclear.