ETF Outflows Shadow IPO Euphoria
SpaceX’s historic IPO, raising $75 billion at a share price of $135, lands on Nasdaq amid a turbulent week for digital assets. In the days leading up to the listing, bitcoin ETFs saw more than $5 billion in outflows, pushing the price of bitcoin below $60,000. This sharp withdrawal of capital from crypto investment vehicles has cast a shadow over what would otherwise be a triumphant moment for both traditional and digital markets.
The timing is striking: while SpaceX’s debut marks the largest IPO ever—surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $30 billion offering in 2019—crypto markets are experiencing notable stress. The question for investors is whether the liquidity drawn into SpaceX will further drain risk appetite from digital assets or if fresh capital will eventually cycle back into crypto once the initial IPO fervor subsides.
In the week before SpaceX's Nasdaq debut, bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows exceeding $5 billion.
On paper, a blockbuster IPO should signal optimism, but the concurrent ETF outflows suggest that risk capital is not unlimited.
S&P Peaks Echo Through Mega IPOs
Historical parallels offer little comfort for those hoping SpaceX’s listing will mark a new bull run. Four of the five largest IPOs—including Saudi Aramco, Alibaba, and Visa—have coincided with major or interim peaks in the S&P 500 Indxe. Notably, Saudi Aramco’s December 2019 debut occurred just ten weeks before global equities plunged during the COVID crash. The only outlier among these mega-offerings is NTT Mobile Communication Network, which did not align with a market top.
While every cycle is unique, these precedents highlight how massive public offerings can cluster near periods of market exuberance—and sometimes signal exhaustion. With SpaceX valued at roughly $1.8 trillion on a fully-diluted basis and producing $19 billion in revenue last year, its scale rivals any corporate debut in history.
It’s uncertain whether this time will be different.
See Also
Crypto Derivatives Signal Investor Risk Appetite
Beyond Wall Street, crypto-native traders have sought exposure to SpaceX through perpetual contracts like SPCX on Hyperliquid. These cash-settled derivatives do not confer ownership of actual shares but allow speculation on SpaceX’s valuation around the clock. On Friday morning, SPCX rebounded to trade between $176 and $183—a premium of up to 36% above the official IPO price—after dipping as low as $153 earlier in the week. Open interest hovered near $216 million with 24-hour volume exceeding $150 million, underscoring significant speculative activity.
This divergence between traditional and crypto markets is further illustrated by Polymarket traders assigning a 70% probability that SpaceX will close its first day above a $2 trillion market cap. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that IG International derivatives implied an even higher valuation of about $2.4 trillion—over 35% above the IPO’s starting point.
Tokenized Shares Bridge TradFi and DeFi
SpaceX’s arrival isn’t limited to Nasdaq: tokenized shares under the ticker SPCX are launching simultaneously on Solana-based infrastructure via Backpack Securities and Sunrise. Unlike SPCX perpetuals on Hyperliquid—which are purely synthetic—these tokens represent actual ownership of underlying SpaceX shares and can be redeemed through Backpack’s brokerage platform or converted back into tokens for blockchain trading.
SPCX tokens will trade 24/7 across supported Solana venues and can be held in self-custody wallets—a feature unavailable to most traditional equity holders. This structure allows investors to move seamlessly between legacy brokerage accounts and decentralized exchanges, potentially increasing liquidity and accessibility for retail participants worldwide.
$2 Trillion Question Looms Over Markets
The magnitude of SpaceX’s debut has left both equity and crypto markets grappling with its broader impact. With Backpack set to begin tokenized trading alongside Nasdaq’s opening bell and Hyperliquid’s SPCX contracts reflecting aggressive premiums, investor sentiment appears split between euphoria and caution.
As reported by coindesk.com, SpaceX held approximately 18,712 bitcoin as of March 31—valued at just under $1.2 billion when BTC traded around $63,500—adding another layer of interconnection between Elon Musk’s ventures and digital asset markets.
Whether this record-setting IPO draws more capital away from crypto or ultimately revitalizes risk-taking remains unresolved; what is clear is that liquidity flows are now tightly intertwined across asset classes whenever market-defining events like this occur.
Next milestones
SpaceX is scheduled to begin trading on Nasdaq today under the ticker SPCX, with a simultaneous launch of tokenized SpaceX shares on Solana via Backpack; if the stock closes its first trading day above a $2 trillion valuation, as predicted by 70% of Polymarket traders, it would immediately mark a premium of over 11% to the $1.8 trillion IPO valuation, but whether this level is reached remains uncertain.
