Trump’s Ethics Nod Shakes Up Odds
On Monday, the probability of the Clarity Act becoming law by 2026 jumped to 43% on Polymarket, up sharply from 32% recorded just three days earlier. This spike followed unverified reports that Donald Trump agreed to a key ethics provision, which had been the last major sticking point for the bill. The provision was reportedly discussed at a July 16 meeting attended by Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt.
The Clarity Act aims to establish a federal framework for digital assets, splitting oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, Democrats have not yet seen the bill’s full text, and no version has been made public as of Monday. On paper, bipartisan negotiation appears active, but in reality, much of Congress remains in the dark about final details.
The Senate has until August 8, 2024, to vote on the Clarity Act before the summer recess begins.
Senate Clock Ticks on Crypto Bill
The Senate faces a narrow window to act: lawmakers must vote before leaving for their summer recess on August 8, 2024. If the Senate fails to pass the bill before this deadline, momentum could stall until later in the year or even into 2025. Patrick Witt, who serves as the White House’s top crypto adviser and lead negotiator for the Clarity Act, has deferred his mandatory military training with the Georgia Army National Guard—originally scheduled for July 27—to remain on hand during this critical period.
This is Witt’s second deferral since April 2024. Meanwhile, Harry Jung—deputy director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets—will depart his post in two weeks. Jung had been expected to fill in during Witt’s planned leave. The shifting personnel landscape underscores how much is riding on Senate action over these next few weeks.
Crypto Markets Surge on Deal Rumors
The crypto market responded swiftly to news that the ethics obstacle may be resolved. Bitcoin traded near $66,300 on Monday, gaining roughly 3% in a single day and reaching its highest level in over a month. Ether and XRP also posted gains of around 4%, while centralized exchange (CEX) trading volumes climbed for the first time in five months during June—spot volumes rose 15.3% to $1.11 trillion and real-world asset (RWA) perpetuals set a record at $311 billion.
The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index surged by 9% as traders bet that regulatory clarity could unlock further growth.
See Also
Ethics Hurdle Softens, Text Still Hidden
Despite reports that Trump has signed off on a crucial ethics provision, no official bill text has been released to lawmakers or the public. According to coindesk.com, only a select group of Senate Republicans have seen specific language related to ethics requirements. Democratic lawmakers have added consumer protection provisions during late-stage negotiations; however, it remains unclear whether these additions will be reflected in the final version or if they will satisfy all parties involved.
Coinbase vice chair Ryan VanGrack stated Monday that customer protections were inserted by Democrats during these final rounds of talks. Earlier this year, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong had cited consumer protection gaps as a reason for withholding support from previous drafts—since then, several Coinbase executives have publicly called for passage of an improved bill.
Why it matters
If enacted before August 8, the Clarity Act would represent the first comprehensive U.S. regulatory framework distinguishing between digital commodities and securities—a long-standing source of uncertainty for exchanges and investors alike. The bill would also clarify which agency oversees different types of digital assets: SEC for securities-like tokens and CFTC for commodity-like tokens.
For market participants such as Coinbase—currently facing an SEC lawsuit alleging operation as an unregistered exchange—the legislation could provide much-needed legal certainty. However, with no public text available and no floor vote scheduled as of Monday, significant uncertainty persists about what compromises have been made behind closed doors.
The micro-contrast is stark: traders are betting big on passage based on rumors and selective leaks (with Polymarket odds now at 43%), but most lawmakers have yet to see what they’re being asked to approve.
Key signals ahead
If the Senate schedules a floor vote on the Clarity Act before the August 8, 2024 recess, it would signal that the ethics provision—reportedly agreed to by Donald Trump at a July 16 meeting—has cleared its last major obstacle; however, as of Monday, no final bill text has been released and a vote date remains unconfirmed.