Satoshi's Stash Still at Risk
Roughly 1.7 million bitcoin—worth around $127 billion—are sitting in addresses created before 2013, making them especially vulnerable to future quantum computer attacks. This includes an estimated 1.
A new proposal, BIP-361, aims to defend up to 34% of all bitcoin (over 7 million coins) by freezing any that aren’t migrated to quantum-resistant addresses. On paper, safeguard a massive chunk of the supply, but critics argue it leaves Satoshi-era coins stranded and exposed.
At least 1.1 million of these coins, valued at $82 billion according to Arkham Intelligence, are believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.
BIP-361’s Fine Print Sparks Debate
BIP-361, authored by Jameson Lopp and five collaborators, lays out a three-phase plan: first, block new inflows into vulnerable legacy addresses; second, freeze coins that haven’t been moved; and finally, allow users to reclaim frozen funds using a zero-knowledge proof tied to their BIP-39 seed phrase. The proposal is being presented as a soft fork—a network change that lets older software keep working—but Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson contends it would actually require a hard fork, fundamentally changing Bitcoin’s rules and invalidating existing signature schemes.
Hoskinson points out that while BIP-361 offers a possible rescue for many at-risk coins, it cannot help those created before 2013—including Satoshi’s holdings—because BIP-39 seed phrases didn’t exist at the time. This means about 1.7 million BTC would remain forever vulnerable or unrecoverable under the current plan.
For early adopters, there may be no lifeline at all.
Hard Fork Hurdles Divide Developers
The debate isn’t just technical—it’s philosophical. A soft fork lets unupgraded nodes continue operating, but a hard fork requires everyone to update or risk being left behind. Hoskinson warns that BIP-361’s changes would break compatibility with wallets and services still relying on legacy signature schemes. While Lopp himself described the proposal as “a rough idea for a contingency plan” rather than a finalized solution, some developers are already pushing for alternatives.
Blockstream CEO Adam Back has advocated for optional upgrades instead of forced migrations or freezes. Meanwhile, BitMEX Research has floated a “canary fund” approach: only freezing quantum-vulnerable coins if someone attempts to spend from a known compromised address. These alternatives reflect deep divisions over how far Bitcoin should go—and how much risk is acceptable—for the sake of future-proofing its security.
See Also
Frozen Coins: Who Gets Locked Out?
If BIP-361 were implemented today, millions of bitcoins could be locked away from their rightful owners unless they act before strict migration deadlines. The value at stake is enormous: over $536 billion in potentially affected coins based on current prices. For comparison, even the largest hacks in crypto history pale next to what could be lost or rendered inaccessible by protocol-level freezes.
The sense of urgency is real—Google’s announcement last month that fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography in minutes has shifted timelines forward by years. Yet on-chain governance systems like those used by Cardano and Tezos—which might enable faster community responses—remain absent from Bitcoin’s culture.
As reported by coindesk.com, even supporters of quantum defense measures admit there are no easy answers: unless legacy users move their coins or radical upgrades are adopted, Satoshi’s fortune—and billions more—could be stranded in digital limbo well before the end of the decade.
What to keep in focus
If BIP-361, posted to Bitcoin’s GitHub on April 15, is adopted, up to 8 million coins—including Satoshi Nakamoto’s estimated 1.1 million BTC—would be frozen unless migrated to quantum-resistant addresses, but it remains unclear how coins predating BIP-39 (about 1.7 million BTC) could be recovered under the current proposal.
