Shorts face $200M liquidation risk
Bitcoin’s price climbed to a one-month high above $75,000 during early U.S. trading hours on Tuesday, marking a 6% increase over the previous 24 hours and reaching $75,300. This surge puts significant pressure on traders who have bet against the cryptocurrency. Data from CoinGlass indicates that if Bitcoin crosses $75,500, approximately $200 million in short positions—bets that the price will fall—could be forcibly closed, or “liquidated.”
The last time Bitcoin approached these levels was in early February, making this rally especially notable for market watchers tracking volatility and leverage. The rapid rise has coincided with broader market optimism: the S&P 500 index recently posted its highest close since before tensions escalated between the U.S. and Iran, while commodities like silver and gold also rallied by 2.9% and 0.7%, respectively.
On Monday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $291 million in outflows, the largest daily withdrawal since March 27.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, emphasized that a sustained move above $75,000 would signal a structural breakout from recent consolidation. However, he also pointed out that if Bitcoin fails to hold these gains, there is strong support at $65,000—a nearly 13% drop from current levels.
ETF outflows spike despite rally
On paper, surging prices often attract investor inflows, but Monday saw U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs record $291 million in net outflows—the largest daily withdrawal since March 27. According to cointelegraph.com, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led the exodus with $229 million leaving its coffers in a single day.
Despite these withdrawals, BlackRock’s iShares ETF bucked the trend by extending its inflow streak to four consecutive days with an additional $35 million added on Monday.
The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust ETF (MSBT), which launched on April 8, has accumulated around $68 million in inflows so far. Yet even with some funds seeing new investments, total spot Bitcoin ETFs now stand at roughly $160 million in year-to-date outflows after the latest losses.
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$75K: Resistance or new launchpad?
Traders are divided over whether this latest push marks the start of a new uptrend or simply another test of resistance. Han Tan of Bybit Learn noted that the $75,000 region has acted as formidable resistance in recent weeks as sellers emerged to take profits near round-number milestones. Kevin Murcko of Coinmetro highlighted that such psychological levels can become focal points for both buyers and sellers—often leading to choppy price action as market participants reposition.
Support at $65,000 remains critical if bulls fail to defend current prices. Greenspan’s assessment suggests that unless Bitcoin can maintain momentum above $75K for several sessions, a retreat toward this lower support zone is likely.
Bearish voices warn of deeper correction
Not all analysts are convinced that the worst is over for bearish traders. Several prominent voices—including LVRG Research director Nick Ruck—have argued that a final “flush” could send Bitcoin as low as $50,000 before any lasting recovery begins. Ivan Liljeqvist echoed this sentiment on Tuesday, suggesting that “the big flush” may still be ahead and casting doubt on whether recent lows near $60,000 marked a true bottom.
Chart patterns remain ambiguous: analyst Jelle identified a bearish flag formation still visible as of Monday—a technical signal historically associated with further downside risk. Meanwhile, Merlijn Enkelaar outlined a scenario where Bitcoin enters a so-called manipulation phase before any broader distribution occurs among long-term holders.
Despite Tuesday’s rally to just under $75K and growing institutional participation noted by Ruck—who points out Bitcoin is already down around 40% from its last all-time high—the possibility of another sharp correction cannot be dismissed.
It’s unclear whether this week’s surge represents true bullish conviction or simply another chapter in an ongoing tug-of-war between leveraged traders and long-term investors.
What still needs confirmation
If bitcoin rises above $75,500, approximately $200 million in short positions would be liquidated according to CoinGlass data; whether this liquidation event occurs remains unclear and would immediately signal a major short squeeze in the market.