Volatility Looms as $75K Approaches
Bitcoin continued its upward march on Friday, climbing above $72,000 during European trading hours and reaching a reported high of $71,859.13.
The MOVE index, which tracks expected volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, jumped over 21% to 95 points on Thursday—the sharpest single-day rise since October 2024. This spike in bond market turbulence is mirrored by expectations for increased volatility in crypto markets as Bitcoin approaches the psychologically significant $75,000 level. Options traders and market makers are closely watching this threshold, with net "short gamma" positions worth $3 billion sitting at that strike price.
Options Traders Brace for Wild Swings
Market makers—firms that provide liquidity by quoting both buy and sell prices—are not betting on Bitcoin’s direction but stand to face rapid changes in risk exposure if prices approach $75,000. Dealer hedging activity linked to these short gamma positions could amplify price swings, forcing them to buy or sell large amounts of Bitcoin quickly as the price moves closer to their exposure point.
Markus Thielen of 10x Research has highlighted that this $3 billion options overhang could make upcoming sessions particularly volatile. When dealers hedge their positions as Bitcoin nears a key strike price, their trades can intensify both upward rallies and sharp drops. In practical terms, this means that even small moves toward $75,000 may trigger outsized reactions in spot and derivatives markets.
For now, Bitcoin is holding above its widely tracked 50-day average price of $72,100.
See Also
Oil at $100, Bitcoin Unfazed
On paper, rising oil prices and a stronger dollar typically act as headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin—but the current rally suggests otherwise. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate are both hovering near $100 per barrel as supply disruptions and ongoing conflict in the Middle East continue to unsettle global energy markets. The war involving Iran entered its third week on Friday morning with new strikes reported in Tehran and Dubai.
Despite these macroeconomic pressures—and a U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) topping 100 for the first time since November—Bitcoin has proven resilient. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), which tracks major digital assets, was up 1.1% since midnight UTC. Meanwhile, other cryptocurrencies joined the rally: Ether rose about 4.6% to trade near $2,117 and Solana gained more than 5% on the day.
Asian equities slipped earlier Friday while the S&P 500 flirted with its 200-day lows; yet Bitcoin’s market capitalization held near $2.4 trillion for a third consecutive session.
Bitcoin Outshines Stocks, Defies Dollar
MicroStrategy added approximately 11,000 BTC this week using proceeds from its perpetual preferred security Stretch (STRC), underscoring institutional confidence even as STRC traded slightly below par at around $99.50 on its ex-dividend date. Coinbase shares also climbed about 2%, while AI-adjacent bitcoin miners like IREN and Cipher Digital opened marginally lower amid sector-wide volatility.
According to coindesk.com, Bitcoin has been among the best-performing macro assets since hostilities began on March 1—outshining major stock indices even as traditional safe-haven flows boosted the U.S. dollar and drove Treasury yields above 4.2%. This resilience stands out against a backdrop where futures on both Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 dropped during Asian trading hours before only partially recovering.
It’s uncertain how long crypto can shrug off broader market stress if oil prices remain elevated or geopolitical risks escalate further.
The Briefing
- •Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $72,000 during European hours on Friday, reaching $71,859.13 at the time of reporting.
- •Options market makers hold net "short gamma" positions worth $3 billion at the $75,000 level, increasing volatility risk.
- •Oil prices hovered around $100 per barrel as the Iran conflict entered its third week, yet Bitcoin remained resilient.
What to watch closely
If Bitcoin approaches the $75,000 level, options market makers’ net “short gamma” positions worth $3 billion could trigger increased volatility due to dealer hedging activity; immediate price swings are likely if this threshold is breached, though whether Bitcoin can break above $74,000 remains unclear as it has recently failed to do so.
