Bitcoin Weathers Storm as Stocks Sink
The intensifying conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets, but bitcoin’s performance stands out.
Despite a brief drop to $63,000 over the weekend—a level that triggered around $300 million in long liquidations—bitcoin rebounded by more than 5% to trade near $66,500. The crypto market has been locked in a volatile range since February, with recent swings testing both $70,000 on the upside and $62,500 on the downside. While some altcoins like solana and ether suffered sharper declines (solana dropped 8.1% over seven days), bitcoin’s relative resilience has drawn attention from institutional investors looking for alternatives to stocks.
Gold and Oil Rally on War Fears
Commodities have surged alongside mounting concerns about the conflict’s impact on global supply chains. Brent crude oil jumped as much as 13% at market open before settling around $77.50 per barrel, up 6.4%. WTI crude also spiked to $75 before easing back below $72—still an 8% gain in just 24 hours. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments, has amplified these moves.
Gold rallied more than 2% in a single day to reach $5,400 an ounce—just shy of its all-time high—before pulling back slightly. Silver also touched its highest mark in over a month. These price jumps reflect investor anxiety about both inflation and potential disruptions to energy flows if tensions escalate further.
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While traditional markets remain jittery, bitcoin’s steadier footing is notable. The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) surged by more than 10%, and the U.S. dollar index (DXY) climbed to 98.2 as investors rushed for safety. Meanwhile, crypto-exposed equities such as Coinbase fell by around 2%, with other sector names like Cipher Digital and IREN down about 3%. Despite these declines in crypto-related stocks, spot bitcoin itself held its ground.
On paper, digital assets are risk-on; but this week they’ve acted more like safe havens.
Asian equities were not spared either, dropping by approximately 1.4%. According to coindesk.com, military strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei sparked fears of further escalation and led to retaliatory attacks that closed vital shipping lanes.
Central Banks Face Debasement Dilemma
The financial fallout from war often forces central banks into difficult territory. Governments in the U.S. and elsewhere now owe more than their economies generate in growth—a dynamic that can push policymakers toward “printing money” through bond purchases or quantitative easing (QE) to monetize debt during crisis periods. Arthur Hayes of Maelstrom Fund recently noted that the Federal Reserve has historically shifted toward easier monetary policy during geopolitical turmoil.
Gold’s year-long rally has been driven largely by fears of currency debasement rather than direct war risk alone. With gold climbing to nearly $5,400 per ounce this week and central banks potentially preparing for liquidity injections if conditions worsen, digital assets like bitcoin may see renewed interest as alternative stores of value.
War Shakes Equities, Boosts Hard Assets
The broader market reaction underscores how quickly investor sentiment can shift when geopolitical risks spike. The past week saw oil prices surge by double digits and gold approach record levels—all while both Asian and U.S. equities posted losses between 0.7% and 1.5%. Crypto markets have not been immune: ether dropped by 2.5% to $1,967 while XRP lost 3.6%, highlighting pockets of vulnerability even within digital assets.
Yet some investors are doubling down on crypto exposure amid volatility: Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap Financial purchased an additional 450 bitcoin during this period and increased share buybacks—a sign that market participants see opportunity despite turbulence.
It remains uncertain whether bitcoin will continue to act as a safe haven if hostilities escalate further or if new shocks will test its recent resilience.
What We Learned
- •Bitcoin rebounded over 5% from a weekend low of $63,000 to trade near $66,500 as of Monday.
- •Brent crude oil surged up to 13%, settling at $77.50 per barrel after the Strait of Hormuz closure.
- •Gold reached $5,400 per ounce, just below its all-time high of $5,600, amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
Next potential catalysts
If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, as reported by Bloomberg, and oil prices continue to surge above the recent 13% spike to $82 a barrel, immediate pressure on global equities and crypto assets could intensify; however, any confirmed reopening or de-escalation would likely trigger a rapid reversal in these moves.