Zuckerberg Bets Big on Arena
Meta, the parent company of Facebook, is developing a new prediction market app called “Arena,” with CEO Mark Zuckerberg reportedly making it a top internal priority. Two employees familiar with the project told The New York Times that Arena is being built as a standalone mobile application, separate from Facebook and Instagram, and will allow users to forecast outcomes in areas like politics, sports, entertainment, and world affairs. Unlike traditional betting platforms, Arena is expected to use a points-based system rather than real money—at least at launch.
This isn’t Meta’s first foray into prediction markets. In 2020, the company quietly rolled out an experimental app called Forecast that let users wager points on future events. That product was shut down in 2022 after limited traction. Now, with the prediction market sector booming—Polymarket alone has seen billions in trading volume during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle—Meta appears ready to try again, but with a different approach and timing.
On paper, Arena is just another experiment; inside Meta, it’s reportedly a major bet.
Points, Not Dollars—For Now
Arena’s points-based wagering system is designed to sidestep regulatory hurdles associated with real-money betting. According to decrypt.co, the platform will initially avoid any cash transactions, though Meta hasn’t ruled out monetization options down the road. This mirrors a broader industry trend: both Schwab and Cboe are planning their own prediction markets focused on S&P 500 contracts, while crypto-native companies like Coinbase and Kraken have been exploring event contracts and similar products.
The regulatory landscape remains unsettled. In May 2024, combined crypto exchange volumes dropped 3.45% to $4.41 trillion—the lowest since September 2024—but real-world asset (RWA) perpetual futures saw a 10.4% increase to all-time highs in trading activity.
Meanwhile, legal questions persist: a Michigan court recently ruled that sports markets fall outside federal oversight, while the CME Group is currently suing the CFTC over how prediction markets should be regulated. These developments create both opportunity and uncertainty for projects like Arena.
See Also
Forecast 2.0: Lessons From Failure
Meta’s earlier attempt at prediction markets ended quietly when Forecast was discontinued after two years. The decision came as user engagement failed to meet expectations despite Meta’s global reach—its suite of apps attracted 3.56 billion daily users as of March 2024. The company has also faced setbacks in other financial ventures: its high-profile stablecoin project Libra (later Diem) was abandoned in early 2022 after regulatory resistance and asset sales to Silvergate Bank.
Despite these stumbles, Meta continues to experiment at the intersection of fintech and social media. In April 2024, it began allowing select creators in Colombia and the Philippines to receive USDC stablecoin payouts directly into their crypto wallets across several blockchain networks—a move that signals ongoing interest in digital assets even after previous failures.
It’s unclear if Arena will avoid the fate of Forecast or Diem, but Meta’s willingness to iterate suggests that lessons learned could inform this new launch.
Why Prediction Markets Suddenly Matter
The resurgence of interest in prediction markets coincides with major global events and shifting financial trends. During the current U.S. presidential election cycle alone, Polymarket processed billions of dollars in bets—a scale that dwarfs its previous activity and highlights growing public appetite for event-driven speculation. At the same time, traditional finance giants are moving into this space: Robinhood introduced event contracts earlier this year, while Schwab and Cboe are preparing similar offerings.
A Wall Street Journal investigation found $1.9 million in faked Polymarket bets this year.
These controversies underscore why platforms like Arena are opting for points-based systems at launch; fraud risks remain high when real money is involved. Yet even without cash payouts, prediction markets can generate massive engagement—and valuable data about public sentiment on everything from elections to entertainment awards.
What’s Actually at Stake for Users
For everyday users, Arena could offer a gamified way to test their forecasting skills against millions of others worldwide—without risking actual dollars or crypto tokens upfront. However, as seen with Polymarket’s billions in volume during just one election season and $1.9 million in fake bets uncovered by investigators this year, even non-cash markets can have significant impact and vulnerabilities.
Meta has invested $80 billion into metaverse initiatives since pivoting its corporate strategy but scaled back certain projects earlier this year—including halting new virtual reality experiences for Horizon Worlds and discontinuing NFT support on Instagram after only twelve months.
With Arena still under wraps and no firm launch date announced as of June 2024, much remains uncertain about how Meta will position its latest experiment—or whether it can finally crack the code of mainstream digital prediction markets.
What to Take Away
- •Meta is developing a standalone prediction market app called Arena, using points instead of cash, as of June 2024.
- •Arena follows Meta’s previous prediction app Forecast, which launched in 2020 and was shut down in 2022.
- •Prediction markets like Polymarket saw billions in trading volume during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle.
Factors that could still shift
If Meta confirms a launch date for Arena or announces a shift from points to real-money betting—neither of which has yet been confirmed—this would immediately clarify the product’s regulatory exposure and competitive positioning against crypto-native prediction markets like Polymarket and upcoming offerings from Schwab and Cboe.